National average price of pig acquire week, white striped pig factory week for 5 weeks the average price has been rising, and have continued to expand the potential gains. It is understood that the average purchase price or pork all over the country have reached about 11 yuan per kilogram, the retail price of pork has risen to its highest point this year, more than 18 yuan per kilogram. The insiders believe that the current price of domestic pig bottom drawing to a close, smooth pig market started to pick up momentum, is expected in August will be followed by a strong rebound.

 

First half of the pork price continued to fall, excess capacity is the main reason.

 

The industry believes that herds stable, slaughter increased, adequate market supply of live pigs, pork price fell during the first half of this year is causing a major factor.

 

According to statistics, the country late last year to reach 469 million live pigs on hand, which can be complicated sow 49.1 million on hand, to fan sow herds accounted for the proportion of pig herds was 10.5%, higher than normal levels, showed significant excess capacity. In April of this year, although the live pigs on hand dropped to 436 million, down 4.15% from a year earlier, to fan sow herds fell to 47.6 million, down 3.29% from a year earlier, but still at historic levels. Adequate market supply will inevitably lead to pork price fall.

 

Pork price remains in the doldrums, while the high cost of feed and other farming, resulting in the first half pig grain price ratio all the way down, pig farming at a loss. Starting from early February this year, pig grain price ratio fell below break-even point 6.0,3 5.5,4 beginning in early fall below 5.0 the following. Although the Ministry of Commerce from April onwards the relevant departments jointly issued several times in succession reserve, but the pig grain than in the experience again after a brief rebound slightly downward, early in June fell to 4.76, below 6.0 for 8 weeks profit warning line, continuous 4 weeks fell below 5.0. Thus, the Ministry of Commerce this year, down 4 inhibition of purchasing and storage of the price is not obvious, it is mainly due to overcapacity. Some experts think that even if the purchasing and storage to extend the maximum size, it can not change the supply and demand imbalances. Therefore, to stabilize hog production, to improve the effectiveness, is still adjusting from the production, industry and quality and upgrade efforts.

 

Hog prices to recover the pig market bottom coming to an end.

 

It is understood that, from mid-June, the National hog prices began to rebound, after entering in July continued rising trend, and promote the sub-pigs and carcass meat prices continued to rise slightly. At present, the average purchase price over the pork has reached 11 yuan / kg or so, in some places has reached 11.5 yuan / kg to 12 yuan / kg, the retail price of pork has risen to its highest point this year, 18 yuan per kg above.

 

Comprehensive analysis of various factors, as in the first half the price of pork has been bottom, the second half of the concentration of slaughter pigs Bulan child to have to end in June this year, into the second half of the amount will be reduced to slaughter pigs, pork supply will be reversed and, in certain periods there is a shortage situation, therefore, will help hog prices rebound after rebound in six months. The industry believes that the level of hog prices later this year is expected to build on the existing steady warming trend, pig grain price ratio will gradually become more reasonable, farming profits will be picked up. However, of concern, due to overcapacity still exists, half of China’s live pig supply pressure is still large. Experts predict that in the second half the price of pork on a monthly average increase may be between 2.0% ~ 3.0%, meat prices throughout the second half the cumulative rate of about 12.5% ~ 19.5%, respectively.

 

Experts point out that this year, although the continued loss of pig breeding, rearing families and some small-scale farmers have been unable to withstand the risk of gradually withdrawing, pig breeding stock declined. However, the scale of China’s increasing degree of pigs, a large feed, slaughter and processing enterprises to enter the pig breeding areas or to expand production scale, coupled with speculation speculative capital, the increase in imports of pork, live pigs supply capacity of the overall market remains strong. The end of 2010, China’s pig herds can maintain peak, reached 472 million, therefore, investors in China still live pigs supply pressure, pork price surge does not appear the situation.

 

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